(WASHINGTON) — Then-candidate Donald Trump, at a campaign rally last August as the 2024 race for the White House was heating up, made a promise to voters to quickly bring economic relief if elected.
“Starting on Day 1, we will end inflation and make America affordable again,” he said at a rally in Montana, where he told supporters: “This election is about saving our economy.”
A week later, he made a show of displaying cartons of eggs, bacon, milk and other grocery products outside his New Jersey golf course as he railed against the Biden administration’s policies.
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down,” Trump said at the time.
Trump started to change his tune not long after his victory, however, saying in an interview with Time magazine, published in December, that bringing down food costs will be “very hard.”
Now, seven weeks into his administration, Trump is declining to rule out the possibility of a recession and is warning of short-term “disturbance” for American families from his tariff policies.
During his first major speech to Congress and the nation since his inauguration, Trump last week defended his imposition of steep levies on key U.S. trading partners like Canada, China and Mexico.
“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again. And it’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly. There will be a little disturbance, but we’re okay with that. It won’t be much,” he said.
Since then, his back-and-forth on tariffs for Canada and Mexico roiled the stock market, with the S&P 500 recording its worst week since last September.
During an interview on Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures,” Trump was asked if he is expecting a recession this year after the Atlanta Federal Reserve projected negative GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025.
“I hate to predict things like that,” Trump responded. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing, and there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
He was pressed on his hesitation to strike down the possibility later Sunday as he spoke with reporters on Air Force One.
“I’ll tell you what, of course you hesitate. Who knows? All I know is this: We’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we’re going to become so rich, you’re not going to know where to spend all that money,” he said. “I’m telling you, you just watch. We’re going to have jobs. We’re going to have open factories. It’s going to be great.”
Stock losses continued Monday and Tuesday after Trump’s comments. More tariffs are being implemented against steel and aluminum products on Wednesday, and Trump’s pledging to move forward with “reciprocal” tariffs starting on April 2.
The White House on Tuesday also declined to rule out a recession, as officials sought to cast the market turmoil as a “snapshot of a moment in time” before Trump’s policies bear their intended impact.
“We are in a period of economic transition,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters when asked directly if she could reassure Americans there wouldn’t be a downturn.
Leavitt blamed the Biden administration for what she said was an “economic disaster” left to Trump — despite Biden overseeing a soft economic landing — and pointed to other indicators she said were positive signs for Americans, including a boost in manufacturing jobs last month and reports of companies looking to expand operations in America.
“The American people, CEOs, and people on Wall Street and on Main Street should bet on this president,” Leavitt told reporters. “He is a dealmaker. He is a businessman and he’s doing what’s right for our country.”
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